The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on July 29. But the vote was 9 to 3, and all three no votes wanted to raise rates, not cut them. It was the first time since 2016 that three members pushed the same direction. The market is now pricing a hike in September, not a cut. Read the Special Feature for what that means for you.
Rates climbed again last week. Four weeks in a row.
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.66 percent for the week ending July 30, up from 6.58 percent the week before. That is the fourth straight weekly increase. Daily lender pricing was already running higher.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending July 30, 2026. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.72%. Daily lender pricing (Mortgage News Daily) sat at 6.77% on July 30, near a one-year high.
The latest national numbers
The most recent existing-home sales report still shows a record median price and more homes on the market than a year ago. The next update lands August 11.
Source: National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales, June 2026 (released July 9, 2026). Next release August 11, 2026.
Vet Corner
Purple Heart Day is August 7
On August 7, 1782, George Washington created the Badge of Military Merit, the award we now call the Purple Heart. It is the oldest military honor still given today, and it goes to those wounded or killed in service.
The VA home loan runs on the same principle. It is not a giveaway. It is a benefit earned through service, and it is one of the strongest loan options on the market: no down payment required, no monthly mortgage insurance, and competitive rates.
If you served, or you love someone who did, this is a good week to use what was earned. Ask me what your VA benefit looks like in today's market.
Buyer Tip
The rate you see is not the rate you lock
The Freddie Mac survey rate you read in the news is a weekly average. It ran 6.66 percent last week. Daily lender pricing was already higher at 6.77 percent, and it moves every day with the bond market.
That gap matters when you are shopping. The headline number is a rearview mirror. The rate you actually lock depends on the day you lock it, your credit, your down payment, and your loan type.
Do not shop on the headline. Get a real quote for your situation, then decide. Waiting for the average to fall assumes it will, and right now the pressure is the other way.
Four things worth knowing
- 1The Fed held, but three members voted to hikeOn July 29 the Fed kept its rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fifth straight meeting. The vote was 9 to 3, and all three dissenters, the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Fed banks, wanted to raise rates by a quarter point. It was the first time since 2016 that three members dissented in the same direction. No one voted to cut.
- 2The market now expects a hike in SeptemberAfter the meeting, futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting near 72 percent, with the odds of a cut close to zero. By this week some readings pushed those hike odds above 80 percent. The next Fed move is priced as up, not down.
- 3The economy cooled and inflation eased, but not enoughSecond-quarter growth slowed to a 1.5 percent annual pace, down from 2.1 percent. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, eased to 3.3 percent. That is progress, but it is still well above the 2 percent target, which is exactly why the committee is leaning toward higher rates, not lower ones.
- 4Mortgage rates hit a one-year highThe 30-year survey rate rose to 6.66 percent, its fourth straight weekly gain, while daily pricing reached 6.77 percent, its highest in about a year. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates track, climbed to about 4.67 percent as bond investors repriced for stickier inflation. The move up happened even though the Fed did not hike.
The Fed didn't cut. It debated hiking. Here is what waiting actually costs.
On July 29 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Read that vote again. The three no votes did not want a cut. They wanted a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second meeting, has called inflation a choice and told Congress the Fed has no tolerance for it staying high. This is not a committee getting ready to lower your rate.
So why are so many buyers still waiting for one? Because the story they were told last year, that cuts were coming, has not caught up to this year, where the market now prices a September hike at better than 7-in-10 odds. Waiting used to be a bet on relief. Today it is a bet against the whole market.
A hike at the Fed does not add a quarter point to your mortgage the next morning. But it tells you which way the wind is blowing, and the wind is not at your back.
Here is the part that trips people up. The Fed funds rate is not your mortgage rate. Your mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury and the bond market, which move ahead of the Fed. A lot of that expected September hike is already baked into today's pricing. That is why rates climbed to a one-year high last week even though the Fed did not move. The market already voted.
So forget the Fed for a second and look at the math on your own loan. This is what each quarter-point costs on a 400,000 dollar loan, 30-year fixed, principal and interest only. These are examples, not quotes.
| Rate | Monthly payment | Cost of waiting |
|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $2,594 | baseline |
| 7.00% | $2,661 | +$67/mo (about $800/yr) |
| 7.25% | $2,729 | +$134/mo (about $1,600/yr) |
Same house, higher rate, higher payment for 360 months. Now flip it. Here is what a fixed 2,600 dollar monthly budget buys as the rate climbs.
| Rate | What $2,600/mo buys | Lost buying power |
|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $400,900 loan | baseline |
| 7.00% | $390,800 loan | -$10,100 |
| 7.25% | $381,100 loan | -$19,700 |
Every quarter-point higher costs about 67 dollars a month on the same house, or roughly 10,000 dollars in buying power on the same payment. That is the real cost of waiting, and it shows up whether or not the Fed ever moves. If the math works for you today, today is the cheapest this decision has looked in a while.
The next Fed meeting is September 16. Do not watch the calendar. Watch the bond market, and watch what waiting costs you.
You are not just getting a loan. You are getting a team.
A mortgage is one piece of the move. The people around it decide how smooth the rest goes. Over the years I have built a network of pros I trust and refer clients to, so you are never guessing who to call next.
Your market, your numbers
National averages are a starting line, not your answer. Rates, prices, and loan programs shift by zip code. Tell me where you are looking and I will pull the real numbers for you.
Find my marketNeed a great agent in your corner?
Buying or selling works better with the right people around you. I work with vetted real estate pros across the country. Ask me for an introduction in your market and I will connect you with someone I trust.
Ask for an introduction
Every week I talk to people who are waiting. Waiting for the Fed to cut. Waiting for rates to drop. Waiting for the headline to change. I get it. Nobody wants to buy at the wrong time.
But this week the Fed told us something clear. It held rates, and three of its own members wanted them higher, not lower. The market heard that and pushed the odds of a September hike past 7 in 10. There is no cut on the table to wait for.
Here is what I want you to hear from me, not from a headline. Waiting is not free. Every quarter-point costs about 67 dollars a month on a typical loan, or around 10,000 dollars in buying power. That cost is real today, and it does not care what the Fed does next.
If you have been on the fence, let's run your actual numbers. Your loan amount, your market, your situation. No pressure and no sales pitch. Just the real math so you can make the call with clear eyes.
Ready when you are
Book a quick call or start your application online. Both take just a few minutes.
Book a call Apply online