HOMES HERE ARE SITTING 80-PLUS DAYS.
THAT'S YOUR LEVERAGE.
The rate cut you're waiting for isn't coming. The Fed just voted the other way. Meanwhile Montana's market is handing buyers room. Here is how to use it.
LAST WEEK'S AVERAGE RATES
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending July 30, 2026, the fourth straight weekly increase. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.72%. Daily lender pricing (Mortgage News Daily) sat at 6.77% on July 30, near a one-year high.
WHERE THE MARKET STANDS
Source: National Association of Realtors, June 2026 (released July 9). Next release August 11.
WHERE MONTANA STANDS RIGHT NOW
National averages do not buy a home in Montana. Here is the live inventory read across four markets, by county, as of this week.
Homes across the state are sitting 83 to 128 days on the market, and active listings keep climbing. That is negotiating leverage for a prepared buyer, right now, no matter what the Fed does next.
Active residential listings and average list price as of July 30, 2026. Source: Montana Regional MLS (406MLS) inventory report. These are list-side figures, and the averages are skewed higher by luxury listings, not a median sold price. Want the sold numbers for your exact area? Reply and I will pull your market.
Purple Heart Day is August 7
On August 7, 1782, George Washington created the Badge of Military Merit, the award we now call the Purple Heart. It is the oldest military honor still given, and it goes to those wounded or killed in service. The VA home loan runs on the same principle. It is not a giveaway. It is a benefit earned through service, and it is one of the strongest tools a Montana buyer can use: no down payment, no monthly mortgage insurance, and competitive rates. If you served, or you love someone who did, this is a good week to use what was earned. Ask me what your VA benefit looks like in today's market.
Long Days on Market Are Your Friend
When homes sit 80, 100, even 128 days, sellers get realistic. That is when a prepared buyer can ask for a price cut, a repair credit, or a rate buydown and actually get it. But leverage only works if you are ready to act. The smartest first move is not house hunting, it is a full pre-approval, so you know your real budget and your real payment before you make an offer. Get that done and you negotiate from strength while the window is open.
FOUR THINGS BUYERS SHOULD KNOW
The Fed held, but three members voted to hike
On July 29 the Fed kept its rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fifth straight meeting. The vote was 9 to 3, and all three dissenters wanted to raise rates by a quarter point. It was the first time since 2016 that three members dissented in the same direction. No one voted to cut.
The market now expects a hike in September
After the meeting, futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point September hike near 72 percent, with the odds of a cut close to zero. Some readings this week pushed those odds above 80 percent. The next Fed move is priced as up, not down.
Inflation eased, but not enough
Second-quarter growth slowed to a 1.5 percent annual pace, and core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, eased to 3.3 percent. That is progress, but it is still well above the 2 percent target, which is why the committee is leaning toward higher rates, not lower ones.
Mortgage rates hit a one-year high
The 30-year survey rate rose to 6.66 percent, its fourth straight weekly gain, while daily pricing reached 6.77 percent. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates track, climbed to about 4.67 percent. The move up happened even though the Fed did not hike.
MONTANA THIS AUGUST
Montana State Fair
Rides, rodeo, concerts, and fair food fill Montana ExpoPark for the state's biggest summer fair. Right in Paul's backyard.
Western Montana Fair
Carnival rides, a PRCA rodeo, live music, and fair favorites at the Missoula County Fairgrounds.
Sweet Pea Festival
Montana's iconic celebration of the arts in Lindley Park, with live music, dance, food, and family activities.
Montana Cowboy Poetry Gathering
Cowboy poets, Western musicians, and storytellers keep Montana's ranching heritage alive in central Montana.
Event dates per Visit Montana and host listings. Confirm details before you go.
THE FED DIDN'T CUT. IT DEBATED HIKING. HERE IS WHAT WAITING COSTS.
On July 29 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent (Federal Reserve). Read that vote again. The three no votes did not want a cut. They wanted a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second meeting, has called inflation a choice and told Congress the Fed has no tolerance for it staying high. This is not a committee getting ready to lower your rate.
So why are Montana buyers still waiting for one? Because the story from last year, that cuts were coming, has not caught up to this year, where the market now prices a September hike at better than 7-in-10 odds. Waiting used to be a bet on relief. Today it is a bet against the whole market.
Here is the part that trips people up. The Fed funds rate is not your mortgage rate. Your mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury and the bond market, which move ahead of the Fed. A lot of that expected hike is already baked into today's pricing. That is why rates climbed to a one-year high last week even though the Fed did not move.
So look at the math on a Montana loan. This is what each quarter-point costs on a 450,000 dollar loan, 30-year fixed, principal and interest only. These are examples, not quotes.
| Rate | Monthly payment | Cost of waiting |
|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $2,919 | baseline |
| 7.00% | $2,994 | +$75/mo (about $900/yr) |
| 7.25% | $3,070 | +$151/mo (about $1,800/yr) |
Now flip it. Here is what a fixed 2,900 dollar monthly budget buys as the rate climbs.
| Rate | What $2,900/mo buys | Lost buying power |
|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $447,100 loan | baseline |
| 7.00% | $435,900 loan | -$11,200 |
| 7.25% | $425,100 loan | -$22,000 |
Every quarter-point higher costs about 75 dollars a month on a typical Montana loan, or roughly 11,000 dollars in buying power on the same payment. Pair that with a market where homes sit 80-plus days and sellers are negotiating, and the buyer who is ready today holds the cards. The next Fed meeting is September 16. Do not watch the calendar. Watch the bond market, and watch what waiting costs you.
YOU ARE NOT JUST GETTING A LOAN. YOU ARE GETTING A TEAM.
A mortgage is one piece of the move. Over the years I have built a network of Montana pros I trust and refer clients to, so you are never guessing who to call next.
WHAT ARE THE REAL NUMBERS WHERE YOU ARE?
Averages are a starting point, not your answer. Tell me your zip code, here in Montana or any of the states I serve, and I will pull your local market read.
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I bring veteran and buyer education, fast pre-approvals, and a marketing engine that keeps your name in front of clients. If you want a lending partner who shows up, let's talk.
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DON'T LET A HEADLINE FREEZE YOUR PLAN
This week the Fed held rates, and three of its own members wanted them higher, not lower. The market heard that and pushed the odds of a September hike past 7 in 10. If you have been waiting for a cut, I want you to hear this from me: there is no cut on the table to wait for.
But here is the good news for Montana. Our market is handing buyers leverage right now. Homes are sitting 80-plus days, listings are up, and sellers are negotiating. On a typical 450,000 dollar loan, every quarter-point costs about 75 dollars a month, or roughly 11,000 dollars in buying power. Waiting is not free, and the window that is open today may not stay open.
If you have been on the fence, let's run your real numbers. Your loan amount, your county, your situation. It costs you nothing to be ready.
READY WHEN YOU ARE
Book a quick call or start your application online. Either way, you will know your real numbers fast.