THE RATE HEADLINE
WAS ALREADY OLD.
Last week the 30-year printed at 6.55%, its highest since August. By Friday, after inflation cooled, it was no longer the real story. Here is what that means for Montana buyers.
LAST WEEK'S AVERAGE RATES
That survey closes on Wednesday. It caught the early-week high, before June inflation came in cooler than expected and pushed Treasury yields lower. By Friday, daily rates had eased.
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending July 16, 2026. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.75% and the 15-year 5.92%.
WHERE THE MARKET STANDS
Source: National Association of Realtors, June 2026 (released July 9, 2026). Median price is up 1.8% for the year, the 36th straight monthly gain.
WHERE MONTANA STANDS RIGHT NOW
National averages do not buy a home in Montana. Here is the latest read across four of the state's key counties.
More listings and a longer runway mean less pressure to make a fast, over-asking offer. Pair that with last week's lower daily rates and the math is moving your way.
Source: 406MLS Real Estate Trend Indicator, residential activity June 1 to July 7, 2026, across Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Flathead, and Missoula counties. Want the numbers for your exact county? Reply and I will pull them.
The VA Fee Window Is Open Now
A bill in the Senate would raise VA loan fees as part of a larger housing package. The IRRRL refinance fee would rise from 0.5% to 1.42%, and the fee to assume a VA loan would rise from 0.5% to 1%. Purchase fees would not change.
The newest version removed the ten-year expiration, so the higher fees would be permanent, and the window could close as soon as August. Veterans with a VA disability rating are generally exempt from the funding fee. If a refinance or assumption is in your plan, a short conversation now costs nothing.
More Listings Means More Leverage
Across the four counties we track, 2,021 homes were active this summer with supply near 3.5 months. That is more choice than Montana buyers have had in a while, and it shifts negotiating room your way.
The move that wins in this market is not waiting for a magic rate. It is a full pre-approval, so you know your real budget and your real payment and can act the week the right home shows up.
THREE THINGS BUYERS SHOULD KNOW
The headline was old by Friday
The 30-year survey printed at 6.55%, its highest since August, but it closed midweek. After June inflation cooled, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from about 4.64% to 4.54% and daily rates eased. Your rate tracks that yield, not the survey headline.
Inflation dropped more than expected
June inflation came in at 3.5% for the year, down from 4.2% and below forecast, the largest one-month improvement since April 2020. The odds of a July Fed rate hike fell from 42% to 17% the morning the number landed.
Montana buyers have room to move
With 2,021 active listings and roughly 3.5 months of supply across the counties we track, buyers have more choice and more leverage than a year ago. The clean, well-priced homes still move, so be ready.
MONTANA THIS SUMMER
Montana State Fair
Opens this Friday at Montana ExpoPark. Nine days of rodeo, carnival rides, fair food, and concerts including Scotty McCreery and the Oak Ridge Boys.
Western Montana Fair
Missoula County Fairgrounds. Carnival, rodeo, live music, and 4-H exhibits across nine days in western Montana.
MontanaFair
MetraPark. One of the state's biggest fairs, with national touring acts, a PRCA rodeo, and a full midway.
Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo
Flathead County Fairgrounds. The Flathead Valley's fair, with nightly rodeo at 7:30, carnival, and live music.
Event dates per host listings and Montana Edit. Confirm details before you go.
THE HEADLINE SAID RATES HIT A HIGH. BY FRIDAY, NOT TRUE.
Here is how last week actually went. On Thursday, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the highest reading since August. The coverage said rates are climbing. But that survey closes on Wednesday. It caught the early-week peak and nothing after.
What came after was the June inflation report. Prices rose 3.5% for the year, down sharply from 4.2% and below forecast, the biggest one-month improvement since April 2020. The odds of a July Fed hike fell from 42% to 17%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by Friday. Mortgage rates track that yield, not the survey headline, so daily rates eased into the weekend.
If you are sitting out until the Fed "cuts rates," you may be watching the wrong lever. The Fed funds rate and your mortgage rate move on different forces. Montana gives you room right now, with more listings and supply near 3.5 months. The next Fed meeting is July 28 and 29, and no move is expected. Watch Treasury yields, keep your pre-approval current, and be ready to move the week your number shows up.
WHAT ARE THE REAL NUMBERS WHERE YOU ARE?
National averages are a starting point, not your answer. Tell me your zip code, here in Montana or any of the 48 states I serve, and I will pull your local market read.
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A HEADLINE IS NOT A DECISION
I served in the Army, and I learned there that acting on old information gets people hurt. Money works the same way, just slower. Last week half the coverage told you rates hit a new high, and by Friday that was no longer the real story.
The buyers winning right now are not the ones chasing a headline. They are the ones who got their numbers straight and stayed ready, so they could move the week their rate showed up. If that is not you yet, let's fix that this week. It costs nothing to be ready.
READY WHEN YOU ARE
Book a quick call or start your application online. Either way, you will know your real numbers fast.