THE MARKET
JUST TURNED
Prices are falling at the fastest pace since 2017, buyers are back, and a sub-3 percent loan may be hiding in the Montana home you want. Here is your mid-year read, from Great Falls to the Flathead.
RATES EASED, AND BUYERS NOTICED
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending July 2, 2026. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.67% and the 15-year 5.80%.
FRIDAY CLOSE TO TUESDAY OPEN
The weekly survey above is the official benchmark. Here is how the daily lender index actually moved from the end of last week into this one.
What moved it: a softer June jobs report on July 2 nudged rates to a seven-week low. A quiet data week and a cautious, inflation-focused Fed have kept them range-bound since. Next up: June inflation data on July 14 and the Fed decision on July 28 and 29.
Daily 30-year index: Mortgage News Daily, July 2 to July 7, 2026. Daily figures run higher than the weekly Freddie Mac survey.
THE MARKET JUST REBALANCED
Source: Realtor.com June 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report (released July 1, 2026). June's price drop was the steepest since 2017.
WHERE MONTANA STANDS RIGHT NOW
National averages do not buy a home in Montana. Here is the latest read across four markets, Cascade (Great Falls), Lewis and Clark (Helena), Flathead (Kalispell and Whitefish), and Missoula.
Prices span a wide range across these markets. About a third of the homes that sold went for under $500,000, and more than half sold under $600,000, so there is real inventory at every level, not just the luxury tier in the Flathead. Homes are still moving fast: over half of the 707 sales went under contract within 60 days.
Source: 406MLS / Montana Regional MLS Real Estate Trend Indicator, residential, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Flathead, and Missoula counties, June 1 to July 7, 2026 (prepared by Paul Messina). Want this week's numbers for your exact area? Reply and I will pull your market.
Two VA perks worth real money
First, the VA funding fee became tax-deductible in 2026 for eligible borrowers. On a typical purchase that fee runs into the thousands, so it is a real line item at tax time. Check with your tax advisor. Second, about one in three eligible veterans pays no funding fee at all. If you receive VA disability compensation, you are very likely exempt, which saves thousands up front. These are benefits a lot of veterans never claim. The VA backed 528,343 loans last year, up almost 27 percent. Make sure you get every dollar you earned. (Source: VA)
Your leverage is the home that has been sitting
Over half of the 707 Montana homes that sold in the past five weeks went under contract within 60 days (406MLS), so the fast movers are getting bid up. Your edge is the opposite house: the one that has been on the market a while. That is where the price cuts, the closing-cost help, and the motivated seller live. Ask your agent to sort by days on market and go make an offer on the home nobody else is fighting over.
THE USDA RURAL LOAN
Zero down, and more of Montana qualifies than you think
The USDA loan offers 100 percent financing, no down payment, for homes in eligible rural and small-town areas. Across Montana, that covers a large share of the map, including many spots just outside Great Falls, Helena, Kalispell, and Missoula.
It comes with a low one-time guarantee fee, competitive rates, and a smaller monthly fee than a comparable low-down conventional loan. There are household income limits by county, so it is built for moderate-income buyers.
THREE THINGS BUYERS SHOULD KNOW
Prices are falling at the fastest pace since 2017
The median list price slipped to $430,000 in June, down 2.5% from a year ago, the steepest annual drop in Realtor.com's data since 2017.
But buyers are showing up
Pending sales rose 3.7% from a year ago, the seventh straight month of growth (Realtor.com), and Zillow reported home sales jumped 9.2% from May. Lower prices are pulling buyers off the fence.
Homes stopped sitting longer
For the first time in 26 months, the typical home spent no more time on the market than a year ago, about 53 days. The long slowdown appears to have leveled off.
MONTANA THIS SUMMER
Montana State Fair
Rides, rodeo, concerts and fair food fill Montana ExpoPark for the state's biggest summer fair.
Montana Folk Festival
A free, three-day music festival on six stages, one of the largest free events in the Northwest.
Last Chance Stampede & Rodeo
PRCA rodeo, carnival and concerts across four nights in the capital city.
North American Indian Days
One of Montana's largest Native celebrations, on the Blackfeet Reservation, with a powwow, parade and rodeo.
Event dates per Visit Montana and host listings. Confirm details before you go.
THE SUB-3% LOAN HIDING IN MONTANA
Montana has one of the highest shares of veterans in the country, which means a lot of Montana homes carry VA loans, and a lot of those were locked in below 3 percent during the pandemic. Around 74 percent of veteran homeowners still hold a rate under 5 percent (Veterans United analysis of Ginnie Mae data). Here is the part most buyers miss: many of those loans can be handed straight to the next buyer.
It is called an assumable mortgage. FHA, VA, and USDA loans can be assumed, meaning a qualified buyer takes over the seller's existing loan at the same rate, balance, and term. Assuming a 3 percent loan instead of taking a new one near 6.5 percent can cut a payment by several hundred dollars a month. The catch is the equity gap: you pay the seller for the equity they have built, in cash or a second loan, and that is the main hurdle.
Assumable loans are not flagged on most listing sites, so it takes some digging. Your agent can ask a listing agent whether the seller's loan is assumable, and marketplaces like Roam and Assumable.io list thousands of them. With Montana's veteran base, the odds of finding one here are better than most places. Want to see whether an assumption beats a new loan on a specific Montana home? Send it to me and I will run both side by side.
WHAT ARE THE REAL NUMBERS WHERE YOU ARE?
National averages are a starting point, not your answer. Tell me your zip code, here in Montana or any of the 48 states I serve, and I will pull your local market read.
Get My Market ReadMEET TERRAL BLACK
When Montana buyers and sellers ask me for an agent I trust, Terral Black is at the top of the list. He is the Broker and Owner of North Star Realty, a veteran-owned brokerage right here in Great Falls, in the same building as my office.
Terral knows this market, works hard for his clients, and is a natural fit for VA buyers and military families. If you are buying or selling in central Montana, he is worth a call.
Terral Black · North Star Realty (veteran-owned) · (406) 788-7556 · terralblackrealtor.com
Connect with Terral
THE GROUND JUST SHIFTED YOUR WAY
We are halfway through 2026, and the real story is not the Fed. Prices are falling at the fastest pace in almost a decade, homes are no longer sitting longer than last year, and buyers are finally getting deals. Here in Montana, the fast homes are still moving, but there is real choice and real room to negotiate on the ones that are not.
The move I am most fired up about is the assumable loan. With Montana's veteran base, more homes here carry a low-rate VA loan you might be able to take over, and most buyers and most agents never even ask. If you are buying, go find the home that has been sitting. If you are a veteran, claim every benefit you earned. Either way, know your real Montana numbers first. Reach out and let's run them.
READY WHEN YOU ARE
Book a quick call or start your application online. Either way, you will know your real numbers fast.